Employment in grocery stores is expected to increase about 5 percent by the year 2012, compared with the 16-percent growth projected for all industries combined. Many additional job openings will arise from the need to replace workers who transfer to jobs in other industries, retire, or stop working for other reasons. Replacement needs are particularly significant due to the industry’s large size and the high rate of turnover among cashiers and other workers who do not choose to pursue grocery industry careers.

Employment will grow as the population increases and as more grocery stores offer a wider array of goods and services that include prescription drugs, dry cleaning, film developing, flowers, liquor, and carryout food, as well as banking, postal, and catering services. Grocery stores are adding and enhancing delicatessens, bakeries, and meat and seafood departments to counter the trend toward eating away from home, as well as adding ready-to-eat-meals to compete with fast-food restaurants. The trend toward opening "supercenters," where a myriad of products and services are available at a single location, is increasingly popular. These expansions are expected to create many new jobs.

Some technological advances-such as computer scanning cash registers and automated warehouse equipment-have boosted productivity, but these innovations are not expected to adversely affect employment levels. In fact, past technological improvements like scanners and electronic data interchange are expected to improve opportunities in areas such as category management and distribution. Increasing competition from large discount department stores will encourage the industry to continue to improve its efficiency by adopting new technologies and procedures and by eliminating redundancies, especially in the supply chains. Increasingly, many stores let customers process their own transactions with almost no interaction with a cashier. The growing use of self-checkout machines at grocery stores may have a slightly adverse effect on employment of cashiers. This trend, however, will depend largely on the public’s acceptance of automated checkouts. On the other hand, many other tasks, such as stocking shelves on the sales floor or helping a customer find a product, cannot be performed effectively by machines. In addition, many consumers have demonstrated their strong desire for personal services. For example, consumers want managers to answer questions about store policy and services; they want cashiers and courtesy clerks to answer questions, bag goods, or help them bring groceries to their cars; and they want workers in specialty departments to advise them on their purchases and fill personal orders by providing special cuts of meat, fish, or poultry.

Projected growth for some grocery store occupations differs from the 5-percent growth projected for the industry as a whole. For example, employment of bakers and food preparation and serving related occupations is expected to grow faster than the industry because of the popularity of freshly baked breads and pastries, carryout food, and catering services. On the other hand, employment of butchers and other meat, poultry, and fish processing workers is expected to grow more slowly than the industry as more meatcutting, processing, and packaging shifts from the retail store to the manufacturing plant.

Electronic shopping currently is gaining in popularity across the country. Its impact on industry employment could be significant within the near future, depending on how fast consumers adopt the new technology. Growth of online grocery shopping, however, may be tempered by several factors, including logistical complications, particularly in rural areas, and the expense of delivering perishable goods in a timely manner.

Unlike many other industries, the grocery industry is not highly sensitive to changes in economic conditions. Even during periods of recession, demand for food is likely to remain relatively stable.