Employment in the steel industry is expected to decline 20 percent over the 2002-12 period, primarily due to increasing consolidation in the industry as companies go out of business or are bought by other companies in the industry and their operations merge. A worldwide glut of steel and production overcapacity domestically, unless checked, will cause prices to decline to unprofitable levels and require mills to either become more productive or go out of business. As mills either consolidate or close, the result will be fewer workers, but a more productive industry that will be better able to meet foreign competition.

EAF mills, with their leaner workforce and lower cost structure, are expected to benefit from the industry’s transformation and will continue to gain market share. They now produce nearly 50 percent of the country’s steel, up from 25 percent two decades ago. They are also attempting to improve the quality of the steel they make by melting pig iron along with the scrap. In this way, they can more effectively compete with integrated mills in markets that demand higher quality steel. Thus, as EAFs continue to grow in relation to integrated mills, job opportunities will be better at these mills.

Automation, computerization, and changes in business practices that have led to a leaner workforce have reduced the number of man-hours needed to produce a ton of steel and raised productivity enormously in the last few decades. These productivity improvements, which were a leading cause of employment declines in the past, are not expected to be as powerful a factor in the future, as some companies have automated the process as much as they can. Technological improvements, however, will continue to be made, impacting the number and type of workers hired. Low-skilled jobs will continue to be automated and the jobs that remain will require more education and training.

Employment in the steel industry varies with overall economic conditions and the demand for goods produced with steel. For example, as the automotive industry produces more cars and light trucks, it will purchase more steel. In this way, much of the demand for steel is derived from the demand for other products. Other industries that are significant users of steel include manufacturers of structural metal products, motor vehicle parts and equipment, and household appliances. As many of these goods require a large outlay, consumers are more likely to purchase them in good economic times.

Despite the projected decline, job openings are expected to be very good or favorable for a number of occupations. Demand for all types of engineers, including mechanical, metallurgical, industrial, electrical, and civil, is expected to be very good. Companies report great difficulty in hiring these highly skilled professionals. Also, computer scientists and business majors should be in great demand. For skilled production jobs, workers with associate degrees in technology will be highly sought after to operate computer-controlled machines and to repair equipment. Among persons without postsecondary training, those who have good math and computer skills will have better opportunities to be hired and trained for skilled production jobs. Those without a degree must be flexible and willing to go through extensive classroom and on-the-job training. Keen competition can be expected for low-skilled material handling and machine operator jobs, for which employment is expected to decline. Despite the declines in employment, many workers will need to be hired to replace those who leave the industry or retire. Especially at the integrated mills, a large number of workers is expected to retire over the next decade.